Idaho must meet these criteria to begin reopening process. Here’s where we stand.
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Chadd Cripe and Rachel Roberts, Idaho Statesman
For Idaho to progress through Gov. Brad Little’s four-step plan to reopen the economy, it must meet a series of criteria designed to track the impact of the coronavirus in the state.
Idaho must meet all of the criteria to advance from stage to stage, according to Little’s plan. A stage could be delayed, or reversed, depending on the outcome.
Here’s where Idaho stands today as it works toward the first stage of the reopening on May 1, according to the Idaho Statesman.
Of the criteria that the Idaho Statesman has the data to evaluate, the state is on pace to be ready for stage one on May 1. That’s when many businesses and churches would be able to reopen.
To progress to each subsequent stage, the state would need to meet the criteria again — and it could get progressively more difficult to show virus declines. The stages are scheduled to last 15, 14, 14 and 14 days because it takes about two weeks to know the impact of reopenings, Little said.
Little told Idaho Public Television on Thursday night that Idaho is on pace to meet all of the criteria at the end of April.
“Yes, we believe they are,” he said of whether the numbers were in favor of moving ahead. “They are ambitious (criteria), but not overly ambitious.”
1. COVID-19-LIKE ILLNESSES
Criteria: “Downward trend or low numbers of COVID-19-like illness patient visits as tracked by emergency departments within a 14-day period.”
Metric: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 visits/day on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: April 17-30
Current average: 10.8 emergency visits per day, through April 22.
Previous 14-day average (April 3-16): 26.2
Current status: GOOD. The average has plummeted from the previous 14-day period and is well below the threshold of 20 per day.
2. COVID-19-LIKE ADMISSIONS
Criteria: “Downward trend or very low numbers of patients with COVID-19-like illness admitted (to hospitals) from emergency departments within a 14-day period.”
Metric: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 2 patients/day on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: April 17-30
Current average: 1.17 emergency admissions per day, through April 22.
Previous 14-day average (April 3-16): 2.86
Current status: GOOD. The average has declined from the previous 14-day period and is below the threshold of 2 per day.
3. NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES
Criteria: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period.”
OR
Criteria: “Downward trend of positive COVID-19 PCR tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (including flat or increasing volume of tests).”
Metrics: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period … OR downward trend (in positive percentage) over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 5% laboratory PCR positivity on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: April 17-30
Current numbers: 27.9 new confirmed cases per day, 6.71% positive tests
Previous 14-day numbers (April 3-16): 47.2 new confirmed cases per day, 8.02% positive tests
Current status: GOOD. Idaho’s new cases per day have dropped significantly compared to the previous 14-day period. The positive testing percentage also is trending down.
Note: The criteria make it unclear whether probable cases will be included in this calculation. We have asked but haven’t received an answer.
4. PATIENT CARE
Criteria: “Treat all patients without needing to use crisis standards of care.”
Note: This isn’t something we can track. We know there are about 400 ventilators in Idaho, and that ventilator availability is one of the likely tipping points for needing to use the crisis standards of care.
5. HEALTH CARE SUPPLIES
Criteria: “Available ventilators, intensive care unit beds and personal protective equipment (PPE) to safely care for additional COVID-19 patients in hospitals.”
Metric: “At least 50 available (unused) ventilators, 50 ICU beds, and available 10-day supply of N95 masks, surgical masks, face shields, gowns and gloves.”
Current status: GOOD. This information is tracked by the Idaho Resource Tracking System. The information will be added to the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare website, according to the governor’s plan. It’s not there yet. But Statesman reporting has found Idaho has 555 ICU beds and about 400 ventilators. The statewide supply of PPE varies, but Idaho consistently maintained more than a 10-day supply of PPE, according to public records obtained by the Statesman over three weeks in late March and early to mid-April.
6. HEALTH CARE WORKERS
Criteria: “Robust COVID-19 testing program in place for at-risk health care workers.”
Metric: Health care workers diagnosed with COVID-19. “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 2 healthcare workers reported/day on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: April 17-30
Current average: 5.57 health care workers per day with COVID-19 have been reported.
Previous 14-day average (April 3-16): Health care workers were added at a rate of about 10 per day. We are missing one number in our data.
Current status: GOOD. Idaho’s reported infections of health care workers has dropped in the recent two-week period. However, it’s important to note that the state was way behind on gathering this data at one point. Through April 7, the state didn’t know whether 450 of 1,210 COVID-19 patients were health care workers. It’s unclear how current the data is now.
Statesman reporter Audrey Dutton contributed.