Analytics or gut feeling? Here’s how Boise State’s Danielson makes fourth-down decisions

BOISE — The final 2 minutes before halftime of Boise State’s 29-24 victory over UNLV on Friday night might have been the most crucial stretch of the season to date.

Trailing 10-6 and struggling to get things going offensively, with star running back Ashton Jeanty being gang-tackled and stymied on many plays, the Broncos (6-1, 3-0 Mountain West) were in danger of going into halftime without the lead at Allegiant Stadium.

Then they scored two touchdowns to turn the tide, the second coming on a fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line. It was one of four times Boise State went for it on fourth down in Las Vegas — and the gamble paid off every time.

The last conversion came on the final drive of the game, allowing the Broncos to run out the clock.

“We get a fourth down, we kind of know we’re staying on the field,” quarterback Maddux Madsen said. “That’s a complete confidence builder in so many ways. And honestly, once you get fourth downs against a defense, that crushes them.”

Back to the end of the first half. The Rebels (6-2, 2-1) had just crushed Jeanty for another loss to make it third-and-goal from the 7-yard line.

Taking the next snap, Madsen bounced on his toes in the pocket, looking through his progressions. No receiver appeared to be open, but everything opened up right in front of him.

Without a second thought, Madsen rushed forward, taking a couple of hits as he barreled into the red turf of the end zone on a TD run that gave Boise State the lead, 13-10.

“Those guys like to play drop-eight in the red zone a little bit,” Madsen said, meaning only three players would be rushing. “We saw that all week.”

Madsen’s touchdown came with 1:50 left in the second quarter. Three plays later, redshirt junior linebacker Andrew Simpson put the Broncos just seven yards away from another touchdown, returning an interception 25 yards.

But, of course, it couldn’t be easy. A first-play touchdown run from Jeanty was called back for offensive holding, and before long, the Broncos found themselves in third-and-goal from the 17.

Madsen then threw a strike to Cam Camper, who fought to get to the 2-yard line with 10 seconds left, setting up fourth-and-goal.

Suddenly head coach Spencer Danielson had a decision to make. Refusing to settle for a field goal, the offense remained on the field. Madsen found junior tight end Matt Lauter open in the back of the end zone, giving the Broncos a 20-10 lead at the break.

“Momentum changes and I’ve got to be very aware of how the game’s going,” Danielson said.

Momentum swung again in the second half, with UNLV retaking the lead 24-23 late in the third period. Boise State responded with an eight-play, 75-yard, go-ahead touchdown drive.

And yes, you guessed it: The one-yard scoring plunge from Jeanty came on fourth down.

Jeanty had his toughest game of the season, rushing for 128 yards on 33 carries (3.9 yards a run). He also appeared to injure his left elbow or arm while breaking his fall on a tackle in the second quarter. But with his arm bandaged, he just kept going.

And with Boise State needing him to step up, Madsen did. The redshirt sophomore quarterback threw for 209 yards and a touchdown on 18-for-33 passing, and also rushed for 58 yards, including a 49-yard run that set up a field goal and prevented the Broncos from going three-and-out on their first drive.

Boise State was a less-than-ideal 3-for-15 on third down, but the ones they did convert were huge: Madsen’s TD run, his 49-yard scramble and a Jeanty run on the game’s final drive.

Madsen had the last fourth-down conversion, on a QB sneak that allowed the Broncos to kneel down three times and walk off the field in control of the Mountain West Conference race.

That final possession was as hard-fought as the game, and with the same result: Boise State on top. The Broncos ran 14 plays and picked up four first downs to eat up the final 8:07 of regulation, never giving UNLV another chance.

It seemed fitting that Madsen had the ball in his hands at the end, before he ran and handed off to Danielson as the clock expired.

“He’s a competitor,” Danielson said of his quarterback. “Even when things don’t maybe go our way, or maybe it’s a bad decision by him, which there weren’t many tonight, he’s calm and collected.”