The Latest: Hurricane Milton takes aim at Florida as a Category 4 storm

Hurricane Milton is weakening slightly but remains a ferocious storm that could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on Tampa and St. Petersburg, engulfing the populous region with towering storm surges and turning debris from Helene’s devastation 12 days ago into projectiles.

Here’s the latest:

An unusual hurricane season goes from ultra quiet to record busy and spawns Helene and Milton

Explosively intensifying Hurricane Milton is the latest freaky system to come out of what veteran hurricane scientists call the weirdest storm season of their lives.

Before this Atlantic hurricane season started, forecasters said everything lined up to be a monster busy year, and it began that way when Beryl was the earliest storm to reach Category 5 on record. Then, nothing. From Aug. 20 — the traditional start of peak hurricane season — to Sept. 23 it was record quiet, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Then five hurricanes popped up between Sept. 26 and Oct. 6, more than double the old record of two. On Sunday and Monday, there were three hurricanes in October at the same time — something that never happened before — Klotzbach said. In just 46.5 hours, Hurricane Milton went from just forming as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a top-of-the-charts Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds and then it got even stronger.

“I was looking as far back as the Atlantic records go and there’s not really any good analogs for this season, just how neurotic it’s been,” Klotzbach said. “You know, obviously the season ain’t over yet. We’ll see what pops up after Milton.”

Schools in Sarasota County, which could suffer a direct hit from Milton, will be closed all week

“We will let you know — as soon as possible — about school reopening after Hurricane Milton has passed. Our facilities team will need time to safely conduct countywide assessments on all of our sites to ensure our traditional public schools and offices are safe to welcome back students, teachers, and staff members,” the district said in a Facebook post.

The county was also urging residents in evacuation zones to seek shelter. The county is setting up evacuation centers, but those should be viewed as “last resort,” county government said in a statement.

FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell says the agency is moving staff and supplies into place in advance of Milton

And Criswell pleaded with residents to listen to their local officials for guidance on what to do as the storm bears down.

“This is an extremely dangerous hurricane,” Criswell said Tuesday morning. “I need people to listen to their local officials to get out of harm’s way… People don’t need to move far. They just need to move inland.”

Authorities in the Mexican state of Yucatan reported only minor damages from Milton

The hurricane remained offshore early Tuesday. Power lines, light poles and trees were knocked down near the coast, and some small thatched-roof structures were destroyed, according to Yucatan Gov. Joaquín Díaz, but he did not report any deaths or injuries.
Are residents ready?

While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa hasn’t been in the direct path of a major hurricane in over a century.

In that lapse, the area has exploded in growth. Tens of thousands of Americans moved to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many choosing to settle along barrier islands like Clearwater and St. Petersburg overlooking the normally placid, emerald Gulf waters. More than 51,000 people moved to the area between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-largest-growing U.S. metropolitan area, according to U.S. Census data.

Longer term residents, after having experienced numerous false alarms and near misses like Irma in 2017, may be similarly unprepared for a direct hit. A local legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who once called the region home and used to build mounds to keep out invaders have largely protected the area from major storms for centuries.

MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is the “black swan” worst-case scenario that experts have worried about for years.

Control the path and power of hurricanes like Milton? Forget it, scientists say

Hurricanes are humanity’s reminder of the uncontrollable, chaotic power of Earth’s weather.

Milton’s powerful push toward Florida just days after Helene devastated large parts of the Southeast likely has some in the region wondering if they are being targeted. In some corners of the internet, Helene has already sparked conspiracy theories and disinformation suggesting the government somehow aimed the hurricane at Republican voters.

Besides discounting common sense, such theories disregard weather history that shows the hurricanes are hitting many of the same areas they have for centuries. They also presume an ability for humans to quickly reshape the weather far beyond relatively puny efforts such as cloud seeding.

“If meteorologists could stop hurricanes, we would stop hurricanes,” Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, said. “If we could control the weather, we would not want the kind of death and destruction that’s happened.”

How bad is Milton’s damage expected to be?

The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is especially vulnerable to storm surge.

Hurricane Helene came ashore some 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle and still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.

Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay. That’s the highest ever predicted for the location and nearly double the levels reached two weeks ago during Helene, hurricane center spokesperson Maria Torres said.

The storm could also bring widespread flooding. Five to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain was forecast for mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) expected in some places.

Gov. Ron DeSantis assures residents there’s enough fuel for them to get away from Hurricane Milton

“There is no fuel shortage. Fuel continues to arrive in the state of Florida” despite long lines at gas stations, DeSantis said at a Tuesday morning news briefing. He said officials are working with fuel companies to continue bringing in gasoline.

“You do not have to get on the interstate and go far away,” DeSantis said. “You can evacuate tens of miles; you do not have to evacuate hundreds of miles away. You do have options.”

DeSantis said the state has helped evacuate more than 200 health care facilities in Milton’s path and that 36 county-run shelters are open.